central bank digital currency and the future of monetary policy, Overview

Analyst: There may be a RRR cut of 50 basis points to 100 basis points next year. Tan Yiming, chief fixed income analyst of Minsheng Securities, said that there may be a RRR cut of 50 basis points to 100 basis points next year, considering the supply pressure of government bonds, the restoration of credit supply and the provision of long-term stable low-cost funds for financial institutions.Japan's producer price in November increased by 0.3% month-on-month, and it is estimated to increase by 0.2%. Japan's producer price in November increased by 3.7% year-on-year, and it is estimated to increase by 3.4%.CITIC Securities: The logic of "grabbing exports" is expected to support the short-term performance of China's exports. According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, in November, China's exports maintained a certain growth rate, exports to emerging markets maintained a high growth rate, and exports of mechanical and electrical products performed brilliantly. In the short term, both CCFI index and SCFI index are on the rise, and the logic of "grabbing exports" is expected to support the short-term performance of China's exports. In the long run, if the United States imposes tariffs on China, China's export performance may be dragged down. However, based on the analysis of the import share structure of the United States, the European Union, Vietnam, Mexico and other economies, we can see that the current pattern of China's trade diversification has improved compared with the last round of Sino-US trade friction, and the trade between emerging markets and China has become closer and closer. The imposition of tariffs by the United States on China may affect the bilateral trade between China and the United States more, and domestic enterprises going to sea and re-exporting trade may still be effective ways to hedge the impact of US tariffs on China.

Xie Yunliang, macro chief analyst of Cinda Securities, said that historically, the establishment of a "moderately loose" policy orientation needs to meet two major conditions, namely, the domestic pressure to stabilize prices is high and the foreign Federal Reserve is in a loose cycle. At present, it is judged that both situations may exist next year.Guotai Junan: The bottom of China stock market has appeared, and the conditions for a "transformation bull" are taking shape. Guotai Junan Securities recently released the prospect of China's equity investment strategy in 2025, and the bottom of China stock market has appeared, and the conditions for a "transformation bull" are taking shape. After a long period of continuous adjustment, pessimistic expectation and clear microstructure, it is a prerequisite for the stock market to have valuation flexibility. The positive change of decision-makers' attitude towards reversing the economic situation and supporting the capital market is an important cornerstone for revising long-term expectations and getting rid of "bear market thinking" and raising the bottom of the stock market. The reform of the capital market will improve shareholders' returns, and resolving debts, promoting reform and stabilizing asset prices are expected to constitute the new "three arrows" of China's economic development, and the transformation bull of China's stock market is taking shape.Syrian opposition forces claimed to have taken control of the eastern Syrian city of Deir ez-Zor. According to Al Jazeera and Arabiya TV, on the 10th local time, Hassan Abdel Ghani, commander of Syrian opposition forces, said that "the eastern Syrian city of Deir ez-Zor has been completely controlled".

Expert: Central enterprises will continue to recruit in A-shares. On the evening of December 9, Huada Jiutian, a domestic EDA leader, announced that China Electronic Information Industry Group Co., Ltd. will become the actual controller of the company. So far, the number of A-share listed companies "incorporated" by central enterprises reached 10 in 2024. The end of 2024 is an important node for central enterprises to optimize the layout of listed platforms. The Work Plan for Improving the Quality of Listed Companies Controlled by Central Enterprises previously issued by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council made it clear that the adjustment and revitalization of the listing platform should be basically completed by the end of 2024, and it is supported to revitalize through absorption and merger, asset restructuring and cross-market operation, or to withdraw through free transfer and equity transfer, so as to further focus on the main business and advantageous areas. Looking forward to the next layout rhythm of central enterprises in the capital market, many experts interviewed by reporters believe that the pace of "recruiting" of central enterprises in A shares will continue. In the coming period, the cases of central enterprises strengthening their main business through capital operation and giving play to their strategic support and industrial leading functions will be on the rise. (shanghai securities news)Galaxy Securities: The equity market rebounded, and the improved double-low strategy exceeded 9% during the year. According to china galaxy Securities, the last cycle (11.26-12.9) recorded 2.3%, 1.7% and 3.2% respectively (the benchmark for the same period was 2.7%). Since the beginning of this year, the performance of the three types of strategies has been 8.5%, 8.6% and 15.1% respectively (the benchmark for the same period is 6.6%), and the cumulative excess rate of return is 2-9%. In the last cycle, the equity market rebounded and repaired. Wandequan A rose by 4.05%, and CSI convertible bonds followed (2.68%), among which the double-low style (3.25%) rose higher, and the low-price enhancement and low-price large-market strategy slightly underperformed the benchmark, and the double-low improvement strategy continued to dominate.The restricted shares with a market value of 463 million yuan were lifted today. Smith Barney, Foreign Service Holdings and Aimeike were among the top companies in terms of market value. On Wednesday (December 11th), the restricted shares of four companies were lifted, with a total lifting amount of 31.3389 million shares. According to the latest closing price, the total lifting market value was 463 million yuan. Judging from the amount of lifting the ban, one company lifted more than 10 million shares. Smith Barney Technology, Foreign Service Holdings and Pulitzer were among the top, with 24,446,500 shares, 6,503,200 shares and 234,800 shares respectively. Judging from the market value of lifting the ban, the number of shares lifted by a company exceeds 100 million yuan. Smith Barney Technology, Foreign Service Holdings and Aimeike are among the top companies in terms of market value, with market values of 392 million yuan, 34.8574 million yuan and 33.43 million yuan respectively. Judging from the proportion of shares released from the ban to the total share capital, the proportion of one company released from the ban exceeded 10%. Smith Barney Technology, Foreign Service Holdings and Aimeike are among the top companies, with the lifting rates of 29.38%, 0.28% and 0.05% respectively.